Solstice Strategic Intelligence
Reports

Simulate the future of decisions
before you commit capital.

Seven adversarial engines attack your strategy from every dimension. Intervention modeling shows which levers move the needle. Board-ready intelligence in minutes, not months.

PII redaction • Audit logging • No model lock-in • Export MD, JSON, HTML, PDF, PPTX

War-Room Strategic Decision Simulation

Seven engines, not one model's opinion

Each engine attacks the problem from a different analytical dimension. When multiple engines converge on the same conclusion, confidence compounds. Findings carry engine provenance — you know what produced every insight.

War-Game Timeline

Survivability and advantage trajectories with confidence envelope, threshold bands, inflection markers, and adversary pressure attribution.

Intervention Modeling

Branch futures from any finding. Counterfactual ghost lines show which interventions materially shift survivability — and which don't.

Capital Exposure

Margin compression, EBITDA impact, partner churn, compliance cost — structural risk translated into the language of budget authority.

Convergence

100K+ perspective synthesis. When diverse viewpoints agree, confidence rises.

Crucible

Multi-round adversarial war-gaming with attack/defense scoring and judge verdicts.

Assumptions

Surfaces hidden premises the strategy depends on. If these break, so does the plan.

Incentives

Maps what each actor actually wants. Follow the money, follow the power.

Cascade

Second-order effects. What breaks downstream when you pull a lever.

Black Swan

Rare but plausible tail events that reshape the entire landscape.

Historical

Pattern-matches against structural analogues from prior market cycles.

Assumption Matrix

Risk x likelihood grid of hidden premises. Stress-test each one.

Incentive Heatmap

Stakeholder power/interest mapping with alignment scores across actor coalitions.

Cascade Trees

Effect chains with feedback loops and critical path markers.

Black Swan Chains

Tail risk scenarios with cascade propagation and structural consequences.

Historical Analogues

Pattern-matched precedents with structural similarity scoring.

Worldview Grid

Multi-perspective convergence matrix across diverse analytical frames.

Divergent Signals

Outlier detection across engines. The signals everyone else missed.

How it works

This is not a chatbot. It's a simulation workspace that produces decision artifacts. Each run is traceable: engines engaged, assumptions tested, risks surfaced, and why the verdict moved.

  • Actors with leverage, posture, incentives, and intent.
  • Choose domain: corporate, finance, policy, defense.
  • Set depth: 1K–250K perspectives, 1–12 adversarial rounds.
  • Seven engines attack the position from different dimensions.
  • Adversary and regulatory pressure trajectories visible per round.
  • Irreducible vulnerabilities separated from mitigatable risks.
  • Generate counterfactual paths from any finding.
  • See survivability deltas: which levers actually move the needle.
  • Risk severity + likelihood + financial exposure tags per vector.
  • 9 output formats: Investor Brief, McKinsey SCQA, Crucible War-Game.
  • Aggregate Exposure Surface: margin, EBITDA, churn, compliance cost.
  • PII redaction, audit logging, export as Markdown or JSON.

Strategic risk → capital consequence

The Aggregate Exposure Surface translates structural pressure into the financial language executives use for budget authority. Every simulation produces a capital risk profile.

Margin Compression

0%

Projected range

EBITDA Impact

High

Earnings pressure

Partner Churn

Moderate

Coalition stability

Compliance Cost

Accelerating

Regulatory burden

Where it wins

Built for high-stakes decisions where second-order effects and adversarial response matter. Compresses weeks of analysis into a run you can interrogate.

Competitive strategy

Model retaliation, narrative capture, channel fragility, and coalition formation before launches or pricing moves.

War-gamingInterventionsBoard brief

Regulatory pressure

Stress-test transparency constraints, compliance shocks, and policy shifts that structurally compress margins.

Horizon modelingExposure surfaceGovernance

Crisis simulation

Run cascading failure scenarios and identify irreducible vulnerabilities vs mitigations across adversarial phases.

CascadesTail riskPlaybooks

Decision artifacts, not chat output

The product produces structured intelligence briefs in the same formats used by top-tier strategy firms and defense planners. The difference: minutes, not months.

What decision-makers see in 60 seconds

  • Executive verdict: survival score, failure trigger, time-to-impact, primary structural driver.
  • Irreducible vulnerabilities: attack surfaces that persist regardless of defensive posture.
  • Counterfactual deltas: which interventions materially change survivability — and which show negligible impact.
  • Risk surface: severity + likelihood + engine provenance + financial exposure tags per vector.
  • Aggregate Exposure Surface: margin compression, EBITDA impact, partner churn, compliance cost trend.
  • 9 export formats: Investor Brief, McKinsey SCQA, Crucible (verdict/analysis/battle log), PowerPoint, PDF.
View sample brief Try the demo

One simulation, multiple deliverables

Every completed run generates a full investor brief — exportable as interactive HTML, print-ready PDF, branded PowerPoint deck, raw Markdown, or structured JSON. Same intelligence, five formats, zero reformatting.

Interactive HTML Brief

  • Donut-chart survival score with color-coded severity.
  • Expandable panels: scope, vulnerabilities, interventions, roadmap.
  • Animated counterfactual bars showing survival delta per lever.
  • Sticky table-of-contents with section-aware active state.
  • Light/dark mode toggle — works in any browser, no dependencies.
View sample HTML brief

PDF, PowerPoint & Markdown

  • Premium PDF with Solstice branding and full risk detail.
  • Branded 10-slide PowerPoint deck — ready for the boardroom.
  • Markdown for version control, wikis, or Notion/Confluence.
  • Structured JSON for automation and custom dashboards.
  • Every artifact is traceable — sim ID, engines, perspectives modeled.
View sample PDF Download sample PPTX
Investor Brief

MD, JSON, HTML, PDF. Board-ready verdict + risk surface + exposure.

McKinsey SCQA

Full report, one-pager, or slide deck. Situation → Complication → Question → Answer.

Crucible War-Game

Executive verdict, full analysis, or round-by-round battle log with judge reasoning.

PowerPoint Deck

10-slide branded deck. Verdict, risks, exposure, interventions — boardroom ready.

Strategy Engine — five lenses, one verdict

Auto-discovers every convergence/crucible experiment pair, then runs five strategic lenses across every domain — and across all domains simultaneously. Adversarial challengers stress-test the output before you ever see it. 300,000 underlying perspectives. ~28 LLM calls. One unified brief.

Five Strategy Lenses

  • Research Priorities: What to fund now, what survived adversarial testing, and what should be defunded — with specific molecular targets and timelines.
  • Investment Thesis: Buy/sell signals, concentration gap plays, overlooked opportunities, and risk factors with time horizons.
  • Institutional Failure: Funding capture, publication bias, career incentive distortion, duration of failure, and estimated cost in time, money, and lives.
  • Risk Assessment: Assumes the convergence is wrong — finds failure modes, evidence weaknesses, circular reasoning risk, and hedging strategies.
  • Opportunity Map: Systematically ignored angles with strongest evidence, why they were missed, and the investment required to validate.

Strategy Crucible

  • Skeptical Investor: Has seen 100 failed drug trials. Attacks the thesis as circular reasoning and AI bias. Demands hard clinical data, not consensus.
  • Incumbent Defender: Senior NIH Program Director. Defends current priorities — lecanemab is real, SSRIs work in 60% of patients, the system is cautious not broken.
  • Contrarian Scientist: Believes the convergence findings are wrong — the concentration gap is just tissue-specific accumulation, amyloid works with earlier intervention.
  • Neutral Arbiter: Final quality gate. Classifies surviving, weakened, and destroyed strategies. Produces revised recommendations and post-crucible confidence.
Phase 1: Discovery

Auto-scan experiment directory for convergence/crucible JSON pairs. Parse into structured digests with worldview summaries.

Phase 2: Extraction

Per-domain strategic extraction — validated findings, contested claims, destroyed hypotheses, funding implications.

Phase 3: Lenses

5 lenses × N domains + 5 cross-domain syntheses. Each lens produces per-domain and cross-domain intelligence.

Phase 4: Crucible

3 adversarial challengers tear the strategy apart. Neutral arbiter judges what survives.

Phase 5: Meta-Synthesis

Unified strategic brief — executive summary, meta-pattern, research priorities, investment implications, policy recommendations, risk register.

Cross-Domain Patterns

Concentration gaps, institutional capture, heterogeneity blindness, and overlapping overlooked angles across all experiments.

Actionable Output

JSON + human-readable results. Portfolio allocation, risk-adjusted domain ranking, systemic reform priorities.

Evidence Engine — grounded in real literature

Every convergence finding gets tested against published research from PubMed, Semantic Scholar, ClinicalTrials.gov, and Europe PMC. Phases 1–2 run without any LLM — they work even when all API quotas are exhausted. Phase 4 actively tries to break the convergence answer.

Regex-based extraction of testable claims from convergence and crucible results — gene/protein names, pathway references, species mentions, and therapeutic keywords. Classifies each claim as mechanism, therapeutic, species, or epidemiological. Builds 3 PubMed search queries per claim: broad, high-quality evidence, and negation/falsification seed. Zero LLM calls.

Searches 4 free biomedical APIs in parallel with rate limiting and deduplication. PubMed (XML fetch with MeSH terms and publication type classification), Semantic Scholar (citation counts and external IDs), ClinicalTrials.gov (phase classification, completion status), and Europe PMC (full-text, preprints). Cross-API deduplication by DOI and PMID with data merging.

LLM classifies each paper as SUPPORTS, CONTRADICTS, or NEUTRAL relative to the claim. Falls back to keyword heuristics if LLM is unavailable. Computes an evidence pyramid score weighted by study type (systematic review = 1.0, RCT = 0.85, cohort = 0.55, preprint = 0.25), citation count boost, and recency decay. Flags overclaimed, underclaimed, contradicted, and no-evidence claims.

Actively tries to break the convergence answer using two strategies. Negation search: constructs queries designed to find papers that disprove the convergent mechanism. Clinical trial reality check: compares therapeutic claims against actual trial outcomes (completed vs terminated). Rates contradiction strength: DEVASTATING, MODERATE, WEAK, or NONE. Only claims that survive falsification are trusted.

Generates full HTML evidence reports with claim-level confidence deltas, evidence pyramid scores, supporting and contradicting paper citations, falsification results, and overall grounded confidence. The output shows exactly how AI-generated convergence compares to published literature — where it was right, where it overclaimed, and where real evidence is stronger than expected.

PubMed

MeSH-classified full-text search via NCBI E-utilities. Publication type mapping to evidence pyramid levels.

Semantic Scholar

Citation-count enrichment and cross-reference resolution. Academic impact weighting.

ClinicalTrials.gov

Phase classification, completion status, and therapeutic claim reality checks against actual trial outcomes.

Europe PMC

Full-text access including preprints. Broader European literature coverage and cross-API deduplication.

Evidence Pyramid Scoring

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses weighted highest (1.0). RCTs (0.85), cohort studies (0.55), case reports (0.30), preprints (0.25). Citation count and recency modifiers.

Triple LLM Fallback

Gemini → OpenAI → Anthropic fallback chain ensures analysis completes even when individual providers hit quota limits. Phases 1–2 need no LLM at all.

Confidence Grounding

Compares AI convergence confidence to literature-grounded confidence. Flags when AI overclaims (Δ < −20%) or underclaims (Δ > +20%) relative to published evidence.

Want the investor demo flow?

We run one scenario end-to-end: survivability trajectory, irreducible vulnerabilities, intervention modeling, financial exposure, and board-ready brief export. If you're evaluating Solstice, this is the fastest way to understand the moat.

Try it yourself